Ahead of the April 6 Mankato Area Public Schools Board meeting, I’ve been independently working through a few key documents related to the proposed referendum renewal:

• The Referendum Renewal Background
• The District’s 5-Year Budget Forecast (with and without the levy)
• The district’s building bond debt service schedule
• The State of Minnesota’s February Economic Forecast

Each of these tells part of the story. Together, they help explain where we are financially, and what decisions are in front of us.

If you have other information that might help further the discussion please feel free to reach out. My phone number is 507.351.3367

5 year Budget forecast without passing the levy and *no market share growth:

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I take a deeper look at our district’s *student market share here.

Across multiple reports, total K–12 enrollment in the district has declined meaningfully since 2019–2020:

• ~8,685 students (2019–2020)
• ~7,785 students (2025–2026 )

That’s roughly a 10% decline.

Because school funding is closely tied to enrollment, this trend has a direct impact on the district’s financial outlook.

The 5-year budget forecast, assuming no levy renewal and no enrollment growth, shows a rapid decline in the district’s financial position. Beginning in 2029, the district loses approximately $5–6 million per year in referendum revenue, causing annual deficits to increase significantly.

As a result, the district’s fund balance drops from a positive position in 2028 to negative by 2029, and continues to decline sharply in the following years. This scenario places the district into statutory operating debt, requiring state oversight.

Even with the levy, the district still faces a structural imbalance. The levy helps slow the decline, but without it, the financial situation deteriorates much more quickly.

Document I previously shared without market share gain but with the levy.

The referendum being discussed is a renewal of existing funding, not a new increase.

It currently provides about:

• $5.4–$5.5 million per year
• Roughly $640 per pupil (APU) – Adjusted Pupil Units (APU), which is how Minnesota calculates school funding.

This funding supports day-to-day operations; staffing, programs, and services. $640 per pupil is based on APU, which is a weighted student count used for funding. It’s not exactly $640 per student, but it’s how the state accounts for the different costs of educating students at different grade levels.

👉 If renewed: funding continues
👉 If not: that revenue goes away beginning in 2029

And you can learn a little more about how to read this Budget Forecast Here.

🏗️ Building Bond Debt Service Overview

The district’s building bond debt service schedule reflects the $105 million voter-approved bond used for facilities and capital improvements.

From the schedule:

• Total debt service (FY2026–FY2046): ~$314.5 million
• Total principal: ~$223.6 million
• Total interest: ~$90.9 million
• Payments extend out to approximately 2046

The highest annual payment occurs around FY2034, at about $19.83 million.

From 2034

• Principal: $14.23M
• Total Debt Service: $19.83M

👉 That means:

• Interest = $19.83M – $14.23M ≈ $5.6M in 2034

The Referendum Renewal Background (2025–2026) explains the district’s plan hope to renew its existing operating referendum, which currently generates about $5.4–$5.5 million annually to support day-to-day operations like staffing and programs.

Because of recent legislative changes, the School Board has the option to renew this funding once, at the same amount and duration, without going back to voters. If the referendum is not renewed, that revenue would expire, creating a significant gap in the district’s budget beginning around 2029.

The document also places the renewal in the context of the district’s long-term financial outlook, noting that while renewal helps maintain current funding, it does not fully address the projected structural imbalance between revenue and expenditures.

The state of Minnesota’s Economic Forecast from February.

The State of Minnesota’s February economic forecast provides important context:

• State Revenue growth is expected to be modest (~2%)
• The States costs; especially salaries and benefits, are expected to grow faster than overall revenue.
• Even the state is projecting a structural imbalance

At the same time, there are signs of increasing financial pressure on households, including rising delinquencies on car loan and credit card repayments.

👉 This tells us:

• We should not expect rapid revenue growth to solve the problem
• Financial decisions need to be long-term and realistic

The State of Minnesota has uneven growth

• Higher-income households doing fine
• Lower-income households under pressure

👷 Labor market constraints In the State of Minnesota

• Aging population
• Slower workforce growth
• Limited employment growth

👉 Long-term pressure on:

• Tax base
• Economic expansion

The forecast already warns:

• Growth is modest
• Risks are real

👉 Rising delinquencies = early warning signs

Stay Engaged

These are complex issues, but they matter for our students, our schools, and our community.

I encourage you to stay involved:

• Review the materials
• Ask questions
• Attend the April 6 Mankato Area Public School’s Board meeting and others as these financial discussions continue